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08-09 Cyclone Season Forecasts released

The 2008/2009 Cyclone & Flooding Season commenced on 1 November.

Recently released Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecasts predict that the coming season will produce an ‘above normal’ level of cyclone and flooding activity in the Coral Sea, North-West Shelf and Northern regions of Australia. BoM warns of the likelihood of at least 2 coastal impacts in each region, with significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal crossing during the season.

Although there is evidence of a decline in well-established La Niña conditions, a repeat of the widespread rainfall and flooding in the Coral Sea and Queensland's east coast, and severe weather patterns in other tropical areas during last season cannot be ruled out.

The Bureau's North Queensland Regional Director reports that the general climate pattern expected during the spring and summer months is essentially a neutral one but when in the past 25 years or so there have been similar general climate patterns over the August-October period, there were three occasions when the following cyclone seasons produced a Category 2 or Category 3 cyclone that made landfall on the east coast. (Aivu, Rona, and Abigail). The Regional Director warned that a coastal crossing by a destructive cyclone during the coming season should be seriously considered, and that with the continuing growth of coastal development, a single cyclone to reach landfall can cause a disaster.

In Western Australia a greater number of cyclones are expected this season, with a higher than usual risk of an early season coastal impact. Around 5 to 7 cyclones are expected with possibly two coastal impacts, one of them severe. Coastal communities between Broome and Exmouth face the highest cyclone risk of anywhere in Australia

The outlook for the Top End includes a cyclone before Christmas in the Timor Sea and suggestions there may be an above average number of tropical cyclones. On average there is around one coastal impact in the Territory during each season and this season there is an even chance of a severe tropical cyclone (Category 3 or greater).

The warnings come as annual campaigns have commenced to raise awareness in affected communities of the need for early preparedness and understanding of the risks associated with natural hazards..